Climate-conflict results
Group/land use type studied
A variety of groups and conflict types are identified in the literature, however, strict classification was difficult as the groups analysed are not always definitively stated. For example, broad mention may be given to rain fed agricultural communities in sub-Saharan Africa being the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change [13]. It is such cases that can make for some ambiguity, none-the-less, classification was still achieved. Indeed, Raleigh and Kniveton [42] assert that past studies have failed to separate conflicts into different groupings according to their structures, aims and goals. It may also be that strict mention not always being made of such groups, was not the aim of the quantitative comparative literature, rather it enables researchers to generalize across regions for factors linking climatic changes to conflict [10]. To gain clarity on this issue guidelines for classification were taken from and found to be like that of Raleigh and Kniveton [42]. They document rebel conflict, involving rebel groups and the state, as well as communal conflicts/violence said to involve pastoral and crop-based communities as well as ethnically, religiously or otherwise marginalised communities. This SLR departs somewhat from the approach outlined by Raleigh and Kniveton [42], and goes further as set out in Fig. 1, it identifies several conflict types with corresponding groups. These conflicts involve agricultural communities, both crop farmers and pastoralists, urban populations and ethnically, religiously or other based violent conflicts. Also identified is civil war, usually involving the state against non-state actors [54] (see Fig. 1).
It is worth further noting the difficulty in documenting these conflict types and groups. The agricultural sector (includes crop based and pastoral communities) is mentioned in most studies as being the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to its reliance on natural precipitation patterns [22, 27, 54]. However, it is not always clear if the assertion is that it is such groups who will be involved in the conflict. For example, Burke et al. [13]; Couttenier and Soubeyran [15] refer to civil war, yet both mention the high vulnerability of agricultural communities. Both papers use conflict data that is a part of the ongoing UCDP/PRIOFootnote 4project on armed conflict [54]. Thus, it is not clear whether agricultural communities or various other state and not state actors are the primary actors involved in, or the causes of, conflict. It could be that the vulnerability of the agricultural sector acts as a proxy for violent conflict rather than being involved in violent conflict. For example, Burke et al. [13] assert that agricultural performance is the key mechanism linking increasing temperatures to civil war in Africa (a simple causal link is contested, this will be discussed in the Summary of Results and Discussion section). The study by Rowhani et al. [44] was classified as communal violence (ill-defined) in Fig. 1. Here, the authors documented various conflicting communities in Ethiopia, Sudan and Somalia, making reference to various pre-existing ethnic, religious and other tensions, as well as paying mention to large pastoral communities in the region. Here ambiguity is created as the UCDP/PRIO database was used for their conflict data as a study of civil war as encompassing: “interstate, extrastate, internal and internationalized internal armed conflict with at least 25 battle deaths between two or more parties where at least one is the government of state” [44].
Jones, Mattiacci and Braumoeller [27] further illustrate how food production and possible food insecurity (agricultural production being an important factor in food security) can affect violent unrest where vulnerability of the state is low, namely, state vulnerability moderates the effect of food insecurity and thus the likelihood of violence. This presents a clearer understanding of the groups involved in conflict and how the agricultural sector is related through its link to food security and state vulnerability. Likewise, clearly identifying pastoral communities as the key actors in conflict, allowed Adano et al. [3], Schilling et al. [47] and Theisen [53] to better identify how warming and drought impacted those communities and interacted with existing conditional and mediating factors. This being a notable benefit of the single case quantitative studies. The ambiguity in clearly defining groups involved in conflict, illustrated above, leads to a corresponding ambiguity in the defining of groups for Fig. 1, suggesting that this may be a limitation of the SLR analysis. However, the analysis would not have been able to gain the insights it did without using this approach.
Vulnerability relating to climate change
The concept of ‘vulnerability’ (‘vulnerable’ included) is explored or at least mentioned in at least 70% of the climate-conflict studies identified in this SLR, suggesting that it is a significant aspect in understanding the causal links between climate change and violent conflict. In this section, vulnerability is understood in both specific and broad terms. Broadly, vulnerability can be understood as the extent to which communities throughout Africa are impacted by the effects of climate change, due to their over reliance on rainfed agriculture [22, 27]. Thiesen, Holterman and Buhaug [54] affirm this by asserting that only 4 % (2011 at time of publication) of arable land is irrigated, making agricultural communities unsuited to withstanding the effects of drought. In this context of vulnerability relating to climate change, vulnerability could be seen as the level of physical exposure to the direct effects that climatic changes pose to such communities through their high exposure and low levels of resilience [18].
For pastoral communities, physical exposure is particularly relevant as the pastoral livelihood relies predominantly on natural resources, water and pasture, which are made increasingly scarce by drought, rainfall variability and other environmental indicators [31]. Indeed, Meier, Bond and Bond [31] contend that vulnerability caused by environmental stress has changed the relationship of cooperation and competition among pastoral groups, where one of the functions of cattle raiding and theft is to replenish herds killed off during drought [14]. Raleigh and Kniveton [42] outline one of the possible climate-conflict pathways, referring to it as ‘scarcity’ where increased rates of conflict are likely to follow periods of higher than average decreases in rainfall. Here, a picture is developed where conflict is causally related to climate induced resource scarcity. However, contention exists where the traditional view of resource scarcity contributing to conflict is countered by the finding of Butler and Gates [14], who also present evidence supporting the narrative of an abundance in resources: water, pasture, thicker vegetation, in increasing instances of pastoral conflict. Some supporting evidence was also found for this by [31]. In the literature identified for this SLR, rainfall variability and warming were the climatic variables assessed most, both in 60% of studies. Drought was assessed 40% of studies.
Yet, Fjelde and von Uexkull [18] contend that vulnerability is not only determined by the level of physical exposure, but by the level of resilience in communities or states, which depends on the ability of societies to respond and manage the effects of climate change. Ide et al. [25] confirm this notion of ‘exposure’, describing it as the adverse impact of a particular climatic variable such as drought or warming. The authors expand on this, pointing to ‘sensitivity’, which is similar, but refers to the degree to which a system or community is affected by such climatic changes [25].
Here, it is worth noting how an understanding of vulnerability in the context of exposure and sensitivity is not always reached using these explicit terms in many papers. More often, rather than authors referring to or assessing exposure and sensitivity explicitly, the impact of the climatic changes will be addressed, such as drought or reduced rainfall. For example (some already described above) Thiesen, Holterman and Buhaug [54], outline the impact of increasing instances of drought on rainfed reliant agricultural communities in some of the poorest and most vulnerable parts of Africa. Drought and measurements of precipitation are the climatic variables used by the authors, they are illustrated without referring to exposure and sensitivity in such definitive terms. Yet, as illustrated by Ide et al. [25], exploring these changes more explicitly in the terms of exposure and sensitivity, can allow the authors to better visualise how these climatic changes affect a given community, and indeed how they may be a part of a climate-conflict causal link. This points to a gap in the research.
What will be made clear in the next section is that the climate effect on vulnerability is only a contributing factor, where the term ‘adaptive capacity’ could be seen as the ability of a community to manage adverse climate impacts. This ‘capacity’ refers to the importance of the multiple factors identified that describe how communities are vulnerable [17].
Vulnerability relating to other factors
What is clear in the literature is that there are multiple variables that contribute to the extent that communities become vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change. Ide et al. [25], as the third aspect of vulnerability the authors refer to, outline ‘adaptive capacity’ which is the ability of a system or community to change in order that it can cope with and manage the stress it faces due to its exposure and sensitivity. Rowhani et al. [44] find evidence for the importance of interannual rainfall variability on affecting ecosystem production (strength of the natural ecosystem/natural resources). As malnutrition is statistically associated with violent conflict, ecosystem production and rainfall variability are indirectly associated with violent conflict. What is indicated here is that this potential climate-conflict link is mediated by what can reduce malnutrition. Accessibility to health services for example, through robust infrastructure, can decrease the impact of malnutrition. Strong economic institutions and robust economic growth can also reduce the vulnerability of those who experience malnutrition and rely on ecosystem productivity [44].
In their analysis, Devitt and Tol [17] develop a model of development with multiple interactions. They find that climate change increases the probability of civil war, yet economic growth reduces this likelihood as well as vulnerability to climate change, where climate change and civil war both act as poverty traps and can reinforce one another. Here there is a simplified implication, if economic growth is strong, countries will experience greater wealth and peace, and be able to withstand the effects of climate change [17]. However, not all African states and agricultural (or otherwise) communities will experience the same level of underdevelopment, lack of access, or economic growth and thus vulnerability. Indeed, Thiesen, Holterman and Buhaug [54] confirm this through asserting that differing groups in such societies are not all equally vulnerable to environmental shocks, paying mention to politically and ethnically marginalized groups. A feature of their study, for example, was to geographically disaggregate their research design, selecting for groups experiencing such marginalization, implying that climate related conflicts are more likely to occur in these regions. Raleigh, Choi and Kniveton [41] echo this important realization of where communities are most vulnerable. They outline how conflict rates are in some cases subject to already degraded environments, for example where communities are already experiencing higher conflict rates, ultimately stating that the scale at which phenomena are addressed and studied, as noted above, is of great importance. Further, Raleigh, Choi and Kniveton [41] include food prices and market strength for their model, as important mediating factors for, and between, vulnerability, climate and conflict.
In their study, Fjelde and von Uexkull argue that studying communities at the local level is important in discovering how they experience and respond differently not only to physical, but also to political and economic vulnerability. Capturing these local details provides an advantage relative to those studies which are designed at the state level [18]. The authors look specifically at income and poverty of local communities as their economic variable. However, they also account for specific livelihood requirements and reliance on agriculture, rather than just a measure of poverty. This, in concert with political marginalization, can push groups to violent pathways in voicing frustration when peaceful alternatives are not present [18]. Here, an understanding is developed of how variables other than those which are climatic and centred on the specifics of exposure and sensitivity, are of great importance in determining vulnerability. For example, Ide et al. [25] contend some regions and communities might experience higher sensitivity to climatic changes if they consist of poor, highly populous regions that are highly dependent on rainfed agriculture. Thus, Ide et al. [25], using indicators for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, were able to generate a composite risk index (CRI). Variables for exposure were temperature and rainfall variability. For sensitivity and adaptive capacity, the authors identified measures including communal and household vulnerability, governance vulnerability and population density, environmental dependence and soil degradation. Ide et al. [25] point out however, that such areas which are highly exposed, sensitive and have a low adaptive capacity, will not necessarily experience violent conflict. Thus, there is also a third consideration in developing their CRI, namely a general risk of violent conflict, which is defined as the likelihood of violent conflict to break out in a certain areaFootnote 5. Possible indicators include low economic growth, lower levels of democratization, recent conflicts and low levels of development among others [25]. Through this process the authors could develop a most likely scenario for when and where future violent conflict might occur. The study argued that if there is a link between climate change and violent conflict, it is most likely to occur in areas that simultaneously experience high exposure to climate change, a high vulnerability (high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) to climate change and a high general risk of violent conflict onset [25].
In contrast to this detailed exploration at the subnational level, Jones, Mattiacci and Braumoeller [27] chose to analyse vulnerability at the national level. The authors sought to model the relationship between climate change and violent unrest by accounting for the complex relationship between food insecurity and state vulnerability. Threats to food insecurity is a complex phenomenon and is accounted for through two central processes: extreme environmental change and international food prices. Jones, Mattiacci and Braumoeller [27] contend that threats of food insecurity to the occurrence of violent unrest is moderated by the level of state vulnerability. Here, state vulnerability is a multi-dimensional concept determined by two key features: the states’ susceptibility to food insecurity and the states’ capacity to manage and mitigate rapid changes in the face of threats to food insecurity [27]. Through this view, it was demonstrated that state vulnerability plays an important role in shaping the relationship between food insecurity and violent conflict. Reducing the vulnerability of that state can address the two key ways in which food insecurity can contribute to violent protests and riots identified in their study: food shortages and food entitlements (food entitlements entails the relative control of segments of the population over food distribution) [27]. It is worth noting that there is much overlap between the non-climatic variables that are seen to make a community (or state) vulnerable (as explored above) and the non-climatic variables that are argued to cause or contribute to violent conflict. Vulnerability in this context, referred to as adaptive capacity by Ide et al. [25], is not always referred to as such (less than 15% of studies do so in the climate-conflict literature) illustrating a gap in the literature. Rather, authors often refer to the variables studied themselves. For example, Raleigh and Kniveton [42] assert that the climate effect on conflict is mediated by political and economic variables, whilst Jones, Mattiacci and Braumoeller [27], point to state vulnerability and the strength of state institutions (economic and political) which mediate the threat posed by climate induced food insecurity. It may just be a choice between how authors choose to define their selected variables. However, as shown above, authors who frame vulnerability and mediating factors in the climate-conflict context by illustrating adaptive capacity, gain a clearer understanding as to the potential conflict risk and causal pathways [25, 27].
Peacebuilding and conflict prevention recommendations
This SLR confirms the already reached consensus that any causal links in the climate-conflict debate are likely to be indirect, mediated by a host of other socio-political, economic and other factors. Therefore, outlining definitive initiatives for policy makers to counter any causal links could result in ill-conceived policy recommendations as the evidence base itself is not yet conclusive. However, just over half, 51%, of the studies identified in this SLR still make carefully qualified peacebuilding and conflict prevention recommendations based on their individual analyses as outlined in Fig. 2.
The most commonly sited conflict prevention recommendation, as seen in Fig. 2, was ‘Better governance/political variables’. This also confirms the consensus that variables other than climate change contribute to violent conflict. Some of the studies make general references to the inclusion of political or governance related efforts, for example Meier, Bond and Bond [31] assert that broad political variables need to be taken into consideration as possible response mechanisms. Hendrix and Salehyan [23] call for the promotion of transparent government institutions in order that citizens can have their demands met through regular and peaceful means. Looking at the prevalence of politically marginalized communities in arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL), Raleigh and Kniveton [42] assert the need for greater management of communal conflict. In a similar context, Witmer et al. [60] call for an increase in good governance, specifically, political rights and political freedom, to better prevent conflict. On the other hand, concerning the role of the market in mitigating conflict risk, Raleigh, Choi and Kniveton [41] outline the importance for better governance and management in the volatility of food prices, to increase market development and to ensure market assistance in times of need.
A number of broad economic development/variables are mentioned for their utility in mitigating conflict risk [10, 31]. Burke et al. [13] identify the specific need for insurance schemes to help protect the poor from the negative impacts of adverse climatic shocks on their crops. Burke et al. [13] also identify the need for foreign aid to be contingent on the event of climatic risks or disasters to strengthen a communities’ economic resilience.
A range of other recommendations are made from climate and disaster warning systems [31], to increasing market access for remote communities [23] and to stabilizing democratic governments [36]. Three of the studies also mention the importance of ensuring the adaptation of the agricultural sector to enhance resilience to adverse climate impacts. Burke et al. [13] assert the need to ensure African crops are resilient to increasing extreme temperatures through expanding farmer knowledge, increasing irrigation and expanding crop diversity and genetic enhancements [10]. Hendrix and Salehyan [23] also mention the need for irrigation and increased variety of seeds as well improving water storage. This underscores the assertion that adaptation should be a part of future conflict prevention strategies. Yet, the fact that there is sparse analysis and even mention of adaptation in the literature indicates a gap in the research.
Climate adaptation results
Group/land use type studied
For the selected literature, agriculture was the observed land use in all papers. For this study, agriculture was seen to encompass both crop based farming as well as livestock husbandry, with variations including ‘crop based’ (not specified for single or mixed crop), ‘single crop’, ‘mixed crop’, ‘mixed use’ (referring to crop and livestock based farms), ‘crop and livestock’ (for studies that looked at crop and livestock based livelihoods separately), ‘livestock’ and ‘not stated’ as seen in Fig. 3.
The literature covers some broad categories concerning climate adaption, including measuring adaptation options and constraints, determinants of past and current adaptation strategies, and farmer perceptions to climate change and adaptation. Farmer perceptions of the threats posed by climate change were measured by 42% of the papers. Among those, there was generally a considerable level of awareness as to how the climate was changing and would continue to do so. In their study of 8000 farm households across eleven countries, Hassan and Nhemachena [20] showed that 50% of the farmers perceived long term changes in the climate, notably in warming and precipitation changes. Bryan et al. [7] illustrated that in South Africa, 86 and 79% of farmers noted that temperatures had increased, and rainfall dropped respectively. For Ethiopia, such awareness was 65 and 64% for increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall respectively. Analysing affected groups at such a specified level, as farmer households and communities, allows for granular data collection. Importantly, as is evident, this allows researchers and policy makers to better asses the specific adaptation needs of agricultural communities and how adaptation strategies can be enhanced for the future.
Vulnerability relating to climate change
The value of adaptation for any local community or state actor is assumed and has been clearly enunciated in IPCC reports for nearly 30 years, including the most recent one [26]. It is, however, beyond the scope of this particular SLR to provide a thorough analysis as to the scholarly debate regarding the specifics of climate adaptation methods used. There is a broad consensus in the literature that adaptation is needed to cope with current and future changes in the climate. Successful adaptation in the agricultural sector is needed to meet future demands on food productionFootnote 6 and help vulnerable communities cope with changes to their livelihoods [7, 19].
In the climate adaptation literature, vulnerability is mentioned and addressed in 68% of the studies, indicating its importance to understanding community needs for climate adaptation. Rather than assessing vulnerability in the context of understanding the potential for a climate conflict link, it is understood in the context of climate adaptation needs and constraints. Hassan and Nhemachena [20] assert that vulnerability to climate change is high in many African communities as their adaptive capacities are low. This is largely because climate change is expected to adversely affect food and water resources that are essential to the livelihoods of such communities. Here, adaptation can help achieve the livelihood goals of farming communities in the face of vulnerability to climatic changes [20]. Bryan et al. [7] confirm this assertion, stating that adaptation measures taken by rural agricultural communities can help them manage and adjust to the negative effects of climate change, thereby reducing their level of vulnerability to environmental changes. Relating to the direct effects of climatic changes, vulnerability is better understood as crop and livestock susceptibility to climatic changes [59]. In analysing the vulnerability of the West African Cocoa belt, Schroth et al. [49] point out how past increased warming and drought periods have severely reduced cocoa production, and fears of future projected temperature increases, and rainfall variability are renewing these concerns. Overall climate suitability for cocoa in West Africa is projected to decrease, with low and intermediate zones of climate suitability decreasing throughout the cocoa belt. This will present a challenging future for many agricultural communities in the region, where 70% of the world’s cocoa is produced [49].
Agricultural communities that incorporate or focus on livestock exclusively experience such vulnerabilities too, where livestock are susceptible to increases in disease outbreak, weight loss and reductions to their natural environments and food sources [50]. Oyekale [38] for example, primarily assesses the impact of climate change on livestock among farming communities in the Sahel region, noting livestock husbandry is extremely vulnerable to drought. The author concluded that goat, sheep and oxen were the most at threat, often from pests and diseases. Here the author noted that such animals are often used as a form of wealth storage. By being sold off during times of drought, the animals will often act as a buffer to minimize harmful effects of drought [38].
From the above, vulnerability is understood in a comparatively similar sense to the understanding presented in the previous section on the climate-conflict nexus - vulnerability as physical exposure. In Schroth et al’s. ([49], 232) analysis of cocoa in West Africa, the authors describe vulnerability to climate change as the “combination of exposure (the nature and extent of climate change) and sensitivity (the impact of this change on local systems, here cocoa)”. Schilling et al. [48] confirm these aspects of exposure and sensitivity. For their analysis, the authors assess sensitivity in the context of natural resource availability and the importance of these resources in North African states. Schilling et al. [48] assess water availability as perhaps the key natural resource that the agricultural sector is most sensitive to. All North African countries used in their analysis are either termed as water stressed or scarce. This is a notable issue when it is taken into account that 90% of Moroccan land for example (2012 at the time of publication), rely on rainfed water sources, with precipitation likely to generally decrease with temperatures increasing. For the studies identified in this SLR for climate adaptation, rainfall variability was assessed in 68% of the studies. Warming and drought was looked at in 63 and 31% of the studies respectively.
A focus on exposure and sensitivity with regards to vulnerability and needs for adaptation, alludes to the position that farmers need only direct their adaptation efforts where climate change and variability is concerned. For example, developing drought resistant crop varieties, or introducing multiple crops to reduce the increased vulnerability experienced through mono cropping [59]. However, it is important to understand how these farming communities become vulnerable, thereby affecting their capacity to adapt. Schilling et al. [48], through illustrating a third component of vulnerability, adaptive capacity, refer to ‘generic adaptive capacity’ which concerns the general factors and indicators such as economic development, education and healthcare. Schilling et al. [48] also illustrate ‘specific adaptive capacity’, which are those indicators specific to an impact, which might include institutional performance, knowledge and technological development.
Understanding the complex and numerous factors that undermine a community’s capacity or institution’s capacity to adapt, is key to understanding the vulnerability of such communities to climatic changes. It goes beyond an understanding of how these communities are affected by these changes (exposure and sensitivity). The following section will further explore this complex relationship.
Vulnerability relating to other factors
Whilst the previous section addressed vulnerability reduction through various methods of farm level adaptation, crop diversification and mixed-use farming among others, as direct actions to manage the impacts of climate change, what follows will address general and specific indirect factors that increase vulnerability to climate change. Hassan and Nhemachena [20] assert that vulnerable African farmers need support from public policy initiatives and investment to enhance their capacity to adapt to climate change. In assessing adaptation of cocoa to climate change, Schroth et al. [49] outline the necessity for government policies to guide and encourage adaptation measures such as the intensification of cocoa farms. Bryan et al. [7] illustrate the need for government intervention to assist with guiding the adaptation process, particularly in balancing what the authors refer to as ‘strategic adaptation’ of the agricultural system. This involves balancing the benefits of coping with short term climate effects and adapting to long terms ones to best manage impacts and ensure that no harm in the process is created. This points to accounting for pre-existing vulnerabilities, potentially those that are structural within a community [21]. Ozor, Urama and Mwangi [56] outline the presence of multiple stressors which significantly enhance climate related vulnerability, and which have constrained community development, such as poor governance, poverty, lack of market access and low technological development. Clearly there are many factors which influence the agricultural system, either helping or hindering the process. It is important then to consider the scale of analysis for adaptation whether that be at the level of the farm, local government, state or international institutions [7]. Those identified in this SLR consist of the local community or the farm level as outlined earlier. With the aim of improving adaptive capacity at the household and farm level, Nhemachena, Hassan and Chakwizira [34] point to the need for government policies to support research and development that supply farmers with the appropriate technology, the enhancement of crop development, provision of climate information as well as financially supporting specific adaptation measures such as irrigation.
In measuring farmer perceptions to climate change, Mertz et al. [32] contend that climate related factors, notably precipitation and temperature changes, play a limited role (30%) in determining adaptation, relative to other factors. This leads the authors to assert that focusing adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability exclusively on climatic variables, would not be sufficient [32]. Urama and Ozor [56] point to a lack of income, lack of government support and absence of reliable institutions to assist in providing the necessary capacity to adapt.
Referring to adaptive capacity as outlined earlier, Schilling et al. [48] point to several general indicators in identifying Morocco as the most vulnerable in their analysis of North Africa. The authors state that in looking at economic wealth and resources it is important to consider distribution as opposed to per capita income only. Human development, health and education are the remaining indicators used in identifying Morocco with the lowest adaptive capacity [48]. In identifying specific indicators of adaptive capacity, the authors refer to institutional performance, of which the level of corruption is a key indicator, as well as the availability of knowledge and new technologies [34, 48]. A combination of high exposure to climate change, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity is argued to constitute a highly vulnerable community to the effects of climate change [48]. Nhemachena, Hassan and Chakwizira [34] refer to evidence from their analysis of farmers from South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe as to their perceptions of adaptation determinants, lending credence to the importance of ‘specific’ adaptive capacity. Their research looks at responses of farmers, highlighting the need for increased credit, access to information (both climate and agronomic) and increased market access, to increase their adaptive capacity [28, 34]. As noted in the climate-conflict section previously, it is important to note again that vulnerability relating to factors other than climate change (adaptive capacity) should not been seen as necessarily separate from what are identified to be barriers to implementing adaptation strategies. Indeed, barriers to adaptation are what can cause or contribute to a system having a low adaptive capacity. For example, political and geographical marginalization is a barrier to farming communities attaining the government assistance they need [34]. It may be the case that some authors choose to (or choose not to) frame their analysis in the context of analysing barriers to adaptation and vulnerability specifically through the frame of adaptive capacity. As stated before, authors such as Schilling et al. [48] who do this, could attain a better or at least a more detailed understanding of how communities become vulnerable and what their future adaptation needs are.
Considering the above, it is of clear value to take into account the broader spectrum of variables that constitute a thorough understanding of ‘vulnerability’ and what constitutes its occurrence. Recognizing the importance of how communities are endowed with, or develop, a low adaptive capacity [48], illustrates the need for comprehensive adaptation needs that account for this complex interaction of variables, rather than focusing on adaptation responding only to climatic variables [32].
Recommendations to enhance adaptation
Of the papers identified in this SLR, 79% offer suggestions and policy recommendations for future adaptation initiatives. Recommendations are represented as total number of mentions in Fig. 4.
Figure 4 represents the major adaptation strategies recommended in the literature. According to the data collected in this SLR, 33% of adaptation recommendations are focused on farm level adaptation which centres on the physical or the ‘exposure’ and ‘sensitivity’ aspects of vulnerability. However, most recommendations, 67%, centre on the ‘adaptive capacity’ aspect of determining vulnerability to climate change. In other words, such suggested adaptation strategies centre on factors which describe how a community becomes vulnerable through reducing their capacity to adapt to climate change. This lends support to the previous section in understanding the importance of how this complex interaction of factors, other than climate change, determine to what extent a community is able to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. Similarly, this correlates well with what was illustrated in the climate-conflict literature, where it is paramount to consider variables other than climatic indicators that influence an increased conflict risk. This link between the two bodies of literature will be further explored later in the analysis.