Table 5 The Scenarios – sector conditions and their growth trends

 BAU conditions

Fuelwood usage is all end-uses expected to decline to 23% by 2050 following the declining rural population;

Saturation of households with heating facilities to increase from 50% in 2014 to 70% by 2050;

Fuelwood usage declines by 50%;

Bus share increases from 45 to 65% by 2050;

Passenger transport by air increases from 20 to 25% by 2050;

Light diesel truck share increases from 17 to 30% by 2050;

 NDC Plan conditions (from the broad strategy outlined in the NDC)

Fuelwood usage decreases to 10% by 2050;

Biogas reaches full potential of 20,000 plants by 2030, which meets 28% of cooking energy demand;

Fuelwood usage decreases to 10% by 2050

Electric vehicles share in the market assumed to follow half of the intake rate specified under 2DS of the IEA [44].

Improved refractories in cement industry and efficiency improvement in Iron & Steel and Ferro Alloy industries [42];

Vocarse kiln system in CaCd Industry [46];

 BAU

 HGDP

 LGDP

 NDC Plan

 CNBAU

 CNHGDP

 CN_NDC Plan